Interests over institutions: Political-economic constraints on public debt management in developing countries
Abstract
Some use the model of independent central banks to posit that independent Debt Management Offices (DMOs) can enhance public debt sustainability. This study argues this is unlikely in developing countries. Developing country DMOs have limited space to apolitically manage (a) debt levels and (b) borrowing strategies. A comparison of South Africa and Botswana, using in-depth interviews and primary sources, traces public debt processes to argue DMOs are unlikely to significantly affect the link between political interests and these two key public debt outcomes over time. This argument has three implications. First, it gives rise to questions about the role of institutions in the governance of public debt. Second, it adds to recent literature on developing country external borrowing preferences by highlighting ideological effects. Third, it reinforces the idea that political economy theories of the relationship between interests, institutions, and policy outcomes should vary by policy area and national income level.
Open Research
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Data drawn from public World Bank and IMF data resources, with calculations available from the author on request.
REFERENCES
- Alm, J., & Embaye, A. (2010). Explaining the Growth of Spending in South Africa. South African Journal of Economics, 78(2), 152–169. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01242.x
- Ballard-Rosa, C., Mosley, L., & Wellhausen, R. L. (2019). Contingent Advantage? Sovereign Borrowing, Democratic Institutions and Global Capital Cycles. British Journal of Political Science. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1017/S0007123418000455
- Bertelsmann, J. I. (2013). Independent fiscal institutions in the face of rising public indebtedness. In G. Kopits (Ed.), Restoring Public Debt Sustainability (pp. 75–95). Oxford University Press. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199644476.003.0005
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199644476.003.0005 Google Scholar
- Bleich, E., & Pekkanen, E. (2013). How to Report Interview Data. In L. Mosley (Ed.), Interview Research in Political Science (pp. 84–105). Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
- Blommestein, H. J., & Turner, P. (2012). Interactions Between Sovereign Debt Management and Monetary Policy Under Fiscal Dominance and Financial Instability. 3. OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management. OECD.
- Bodea, C., & Hicks, R. (2015). Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions. International Organization, 69(1), 35–61. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1017/S0020818314000277
- Bond, P. (2014). Elite Transition: From Apartheid to Neoliberalism in South Africa (Revised & Expanded ed.). London: Pluto Press.
- Bova, E., Carcenac, N., & Guergil, M.. (2014). Fiscal Rules and the Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Developing World. IMF Working Paper WP/14/122. International Monetary Fund, 14, 1.
- Brooks, S. M., Cunha, R., & Mosley, L. (2015). Categories, Creditworthiness, and Contagion: How Investors' Shortcuts Affect Sovereign Debt Markets. International Studies Quarterly, 59(3), 587–601. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1111/isqu.12173
- Brooks, S. M., & Kurtz, M. J. (2012). Paths to financial policy diffusion: Statist legacies in Latin America's globalization. International Organization, 66(1), 95–128. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1017/S0020818311000385
- Bunte, J. B. (2019). Raise the debt: How developing countries choose their creditors. New York: Oxford University Press.
10.1093/oso/9780190866167.001.0001 Google Scholar
- Cabral, R. (2015). How Strategically Is Public Debt Being Managed Around the Globe? World Bank Report. World Bank.
- Calitz, E., Siebrits, K., & Stuart, I. (2016). Enhancing the Accuracy of Fiscal Projections in South Africa. South African Journal of Economic Management Sciences, 19(3), 330–343.
- Carré, E., & Gauvin, M.-S. (2018). Financial Crisis: The Capture of Central Banks by the Financial Sector? International Journal of Political Economy, 47(2), 151–177. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1080/08911916.2018.1497576
- Copelovitch, M., Gandrud, C., & Hallerberg, M. (2018). Financial Data Transparency, International Institutions, and Sovereign Borrowing Costs. International Studies Quarterly, 62(1), 23–41. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1093/isq/sqx082
- COSATU. (2010). COSATU Demands to See Conditions to Eskom's World Bank Loan. http://www.cosatu.org.za/show.php?ID=3164.
- Danevad, A. (1995). Responsiveness in Botswana Politics: Do Elections Matter? Journal of Modern African Studies, 33(3), 381–402.
- Das, U. S., Papaioannou, M. G., Pedras, G., Surti, J., & Ahmed, F. (2011). Managing public debt and its financial stability implications. In C. A. Primo Braga & G. A. Vincelette (Eds.), Sovereign Debt and the Financial Crisis: Will This Time Be Different? (pp. 357–381). Washington, DC: World Bank.
- Dasandi, N., & Esteve, M. (2017). The politics-bureaucracy interface in developing countries. Public Administration and Development, 37(4), 231–245. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1002/pad.1793
- Dreher, A. (2009). IMF Conditionality: Theory and Evidence. Public Choice, 141(1–2), 233–267. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1007/s11127-009-9486-z
- Dreher, A., Sturm, J.-E., & Vreeland, J. R. (2015). Politics and IMF Conditionality. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59(1), 120–148. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1177/0022002713499723
- du Toit, P. (2018). Gordhan Places Zuma at the Centre of State Capture. News24, November 22, 2018. https://www.news24.com/Analysis/analysis-gordhan-places-zuma-at-the-centre-of-state-capture-20181121.
- Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2007). Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters. In S. Edwards (Ed.), Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
10.7208/chicago/9780226184999.003.0004 Google Scholar
- European Commission. (2009). Republic of Botswana Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability. Public Financial Management Performance Assessment Report Final Report. European Commission.
- Evans, P., & Rauch, J. E. (1999). Bureaucracy and Growth: A Cross-National Analysis of the Effects of “Weberian” State Structures on Economic Growth. American Sociological Review, 64(5), 748. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.2307/2657374
- Fernández-Albertos, J. (2015). The Politics of Central Bank Independence. Annual Review of Political Science, 18(1), 217–237. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-071112-221121
- Franzese, R. J., & Jusko, K. L. (2009). Political-economic cycles. In D. A. Wittman & B. R. Weingast (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy (pp. 545–561). Oxford University Press.
- Frieden, J. (1991). Debt, Development, and Democracy. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press.
- Garrett, G. (1998). Partisan politics in the global economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9780511625633 Google Scholar
- Gelos, R. G., Sahay, R., & Sandleris, G. (2011). Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access? Journal of International Economics, 83(2), 243–254. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.11.007
- Good, K. (2005). Resource Dependency and Its Consequences: The Costs of Botswana's Shining Gems. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 23(1), 27–50. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1080/0258900042000329448
10.1080/0258900042000329448 Google Scholar
- Griffith-Jones, S., Griffith-Jones, D., & Hertova, D. (2008). Enhancing the Role of Regional Development Banks. 50. G-24 Discussion Paper Series. UN. http://stephanygj.net/papers/Enhancing-Role-RDBs.pdf.
- Gurria, J. A., & Volcker, P. (2001). The Role of Multilateral Development Banks in Emerging Market Economies. Findings of the Commission on the Role of the MDBs in Emerging Markets. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/pdf/files/mdbreport.pdf.
- Hallerberg, M., & Yläoutinen, S. (2010). Political Power, Fiscal Institutions and Budgetary Outcomes in Central and Eastern Europe. Journal of Public Policy, 30(1), 45–62. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1017/S0143814X09990213
- Handley, A. (2008). Business and the State in Africa: Economic Policy-Making in the Neo-Liberal Era. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Hillbom, E. (2008). Diamonds or development? A structural assessment of Botswana's forty years of success. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 46(02), 191–214. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1017/S0022278X08003194
- Holt, J., & Manning, N. (2014). Fukuyama is right about measuring state quality: Now what? Governance, 27(4), 717–728. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1111/gove.12109
- Hostland, D. (2009). Low-Income Countries' Access to Private Debt Markets. Policy Research Working Papers 4829. World Bank. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1344714.
- International Monetary Fund. (2018a). Guidance Note on the Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries. IMF Staff Paper. Washington, D. C.: International Monetary Fund.
- International Monetary Fund. (2018b). Botswana 2018 Article IV Consultation. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
- Kohli, A. (2004). State-Directed Development: Political Power and Industrialization in the Global Periphery. Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9780511754371 Google Scholar
- Kopits, G. (2001). Fiscal Rules: Useful Policy Framework or Unnecessary Ornament. IMF Working Paper WP/01/145. International Monetary Fund.
- Leith, J. C. (2005). Why Botswana Prospered. Quebec City: McGill-Queen's University Press.
- Lewin, M. (2011). Botswana's Success: Good Governance, Good Policies, and Good Luck. In Yes Africa Can - Success Stories from a Dynamic Continent. Washington, D. C.: World Bank.
- Lledó, V., & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2013). Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 46(June), 79–91. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.01.030
- Loser, C. M. (2004). External Debt Sustainability: Guidelines for Low- and Middle- Income Countries. 26. G-24 Discussion Paper Series. New York and Geneva: United Nations.
- McDermott, J., & Williams, R. (2018). Inflation Targeting in New Zealand: An Experience in Evolution. Conference Presentation presented at the Reserve Bank of Australia conference on central bank frameworks, Sydney, April 12. https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Speeches/2018/Speech-Inflation-Targeting-in-New-Zealand.pdf?revision=37a53693-5fe3-41f8-abe0-a9ddd3ef0ff9.
- Mosley, L. (2003). Global Capital and National Governments. Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Mosley, L. (2010). Regulating Globally, Implementing Locally: The Financial Codes and Standards Effort. Review of International Political Economy, 17(4), 724–761 10.1080/09692290903529817
- Mustapha, S., & Prizzon, A. (2018). Africa's Rising Debt: How to Avoid a New Crisis. Briefing Note. Overseas Development Institute. https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/12491.pdf
- Nelson, S. C. (2017). The Currency of Confidence: How Economic Beliefs Shape the IMF's Relationship with Its Borrowers. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
10.7591/cornell/9781501705120.001.0001 Google Scholar
- Noel, A., & Therien, J.-P. (2008). Left and Right in Global Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Pinto, P. M. (2013). Partisan Investment in the Global Economy: Why the Left Loves Foreign Direct Investment and FDI Loves the Left. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9781139094078 Google Scholar
- Putnam, R. D. (1988). Diplomacy and domestic politics: The logic of two-level games. International Organization, 42(3), 427–460.
- Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
10.2307/j.ctvcm4gqx Google Scholar
- Republic of Botswana Ministry of Finance and Economic Development. (2016). Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy: 2016/17-2018/19.
- Republic of South Africa National Treasury. (2009). Budget Review 2009. National Treasury.
- Republic of South Africa National Treasury. (2010). Budget Review 2010. National Treasury.
- Republic of South Africa National Treasury. (2013). Debt Management Report 2013/14. Republic of South Africa National Treasury.
- Republic of South Africa National Treasury. (2014a). Debt Management Report 2014/15. Republic of South Africa National Treasury.
- Republic of South Africa National Treasury. (2014b). Budget Review 2014. Republic of South Africa National Treasury. http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2014/review/FullReview.pdf
- Republic of South Africa National Treasury. (2015). Debt Management Report 2015/16. Republic of South Africa National Treasury.
- Republic of South Africa National Treasury. (2017a). 2017 Estimates of National Expenditure (Abridged Version). National Treasury. http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2017/ene/FullENE.pdf
- Republic of South Africa National Treasury. (2017b). Budget Review 2017. Republic of South Africa National Treasury. http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2014/review/FullReview.pdf
- Republic of South Africa Parliament. (2011). Budget Analysis Manual. Parliament of South Africa. https://www.parliament.gov.za/storage/app/media/BusinessPubs/BudgetAnalysisManual.pdf
- Rodrik, D. (2017). Populism and the Economics of Globalization. NBER Working Paper 23559. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w23559.pdf.
- Rogoff, K. (1985). The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100, 1169–1189.
- Rogowski, R. (2009). In D. A. Wittman & B. R. Weingast (Eds.), Trade, Immigration, and Cross-Border Investment (Vol. 1). Oxford University Press. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199548477.003.0045
- Sadeh, T., & Rubinson E. (2018). ‘ Do the IMF and World Bank Promote Autonomous Sovereign Debt Management?’ Working Paper presented at the 11th Annual Conference on Political Economy of International Organizations, Madison, WI, February 8.
- Sadeh, T., & Porath, Y. (2019). Autonomous Agencies and Relational Contracts in Government Bond Issues. Regulation & Governance. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1111/rego.12257
- Taylor, I. (2003). As Good as It Gets? Botswana's “Democratic Developmemt”. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 21(2), 215–231.
10.1080/02589000305446 Google Scholar
- The Economist. (2020). Free Money, July 25, 2020, ( 436, 9204th ed.), sec. Leaders.
- Thompson, L. M. (2001). A History of South Africa ( 3rd ed.). New Haven: Yale University Press.
- Ülgentürk, H. J. (2017). The Role of Public Debt Managers in Contingent Liability Management. 8. OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management. OECD.
- von Hagen, J. (2013). Scope and Limits of Independent Fiscal Institutions. In G. Kopits (Ed.), Restoring public debt sustainability (pp. 32–53). Oxford University Press. https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199644476.003.0003
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199644476.003.0003 Google Scholar
- Vreeland, J. R. (2003). Why do governments and the IMF enter into agreements? Statistically selected cases. International Political Science Review, 24(3), 321–343.
- Walter, A. (2008). Governing Finance. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press.
- Wheeler, G. (2004). Sound Practice in Government Debt Management. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
10.1596/0-8213-5073-0 Google Scholar
- Wibbels, E. (2006). Dependency Revisited: International Markets, Business Cycles, and Social Spending in the Developing World. International Organization, 60(02). https://doi-org.ezproxyberklee.flo.org/10.1017/S0020818306060139
- Williams, M. (2013). Debt and Cash Management. In R. Allen, R. Hemming, & B. H. Potter (Eds.), The International Handbook of Public Financial Management (pp. 661–684). Palgrave Macmillan.
10.1057/9781137315304_32 Google Scholar
- Woods, N. (2006). The Globalizers. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
- World Bank. (2007). Managing public debt: From diagnostics to reform implementation. Washington, DC: World Bank.
10.1596/978-0-8213-6872-5 Google Scholar
- World Bank. (2015). Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) methodology.
- Wren-Lewis, S. (2013). Comparing the Delegation of Monetary and Fiscal Policy. In G. Kopits (Ed.), Restoring public debt sustainability: the role of independent fiscal institutions (p. 28). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199644476.003.0004 Google Scholar